Fraser MasefieldGeorge Russell was the bookies big favourite to follow compatriot Lando Norris and become a Formula One World Champion in 2026.
Mercedes had done their homework, focusing on the transition to the radical rule changes and their new car when it was apparent that McLaren were running away with the 2025 season.
And it all started so well in Melbourne, Russell winning in dominant fashion in Albert Park before young teammate Kimi Antonelli started to get on a bit of a roll.
Well actually, a lot of a roll! The Italian won five on the bounce in China, Japan, Miami, Canada and Monaco before Russell bounced back in Austria.
An unfortunate DNF for Antonelli at Silverstone gave Russell a glimmer of a fightback, but roles were reversed in Belgium when it was Russell who retired on lap 1.
Approaching the halfway point of the season, it already appears that things are slipping away for Russell.
And his almost tearful interview in the aftermath of his early exit revealed that all is not well.
Russell 💥 Hamilton
A three-way view of their dramatic opening lap collision 😮#F1 #BelgianGP pic.twitter.com/FVsWbI5rh7
— Formula 1 (@F1) July 19, 2026
“I got to the top of Eau Rouge with 0% on the battery. Quite frankly, it was dangerous. I got swamped by three cars,” Russell is quoted on BBC Sport.
“I shouldn’t have been in that position in the first place.
“That’s why I’m most angry. The incident with Lewis, honestly, I think was a racing incident.”
There are a few schools of thought at play as to why Antonelli is dominating his Mercedes teammate thus far.
And none are too implausible.
ANTONELLI IS A GENERATIONAL TALENT
The first is that Antonelli is just a brilliant driver. A once in a generation talent in the ilk of Ayrton Senna, Max Verstappen et al that has found his feet very early in only his second full season.
And there’s also the exuberance of youth argument, confidence flowing through his veins as he rides the crest of the wave.
RUSSELL HAS JUST BEEN UNLUCKY
This is a less plausible but valid argument because both drivers have had their misfortunes, especially in the previous two rounds of racing.
“For whatever reason, the battery decided not to recharge at Turn One,” adds Russell.
“So I went round the first corner, the battery didn’t charge and I exited the first corner 35% down [on electrical energy].
“It’s one thing after another, after another, after another…”
George reflects on a difficult day #F1 #BelgianGP pic.twitter.com/TSgCn11dpa
— Formula 1 (@F1) July 19, 2026
“Because it didn’t charge, I also had a boost problem. The turbo didn’t sort itself out, so I had no power.
“I got to the top of Eau Rouge with 0% on the battery. Quite frankly, it was dangerous.”
But, as in most sports, statistics rarely lie. Antonelli has outqualified and outraced his more experienced teammate in the majority of races so far bar technical difficulties.
MERCEDES ARE ALREADY FAVOURING ANTONELLI
Is there actually a discrepancy between the cars?
Russell has openly said that he can’t understand why his car lacks drive compared to his teammate and had zero drive suddenly on lap 1 of Spa.
This can be explained in a couple of ways.
Firstly, and a nice one for conspiracy theorists, is that Mercedes is actually favouring the young Italian and he has been given the better upgrades, components etc.
Remember Sebastian Vettel being given the new front wing ahead of Mark Webber for the British GP?
But that’s extremely unlikely.
The season is still young, and the team has always been fair. There is a constructors’ title still to go for despite Antonelli’s points advantage.
Much more likely is that Antonelli just has a better understanding of the lift and coast regulations and driving style to exploit better than Russell.
READ CRAIG SCARBOROUGH’S COMPREHENSIVE GUIDE TO THE 2026 SEASON
In addition, there has always been a fierce inter-team rivalry over the ages in terms of team pit crews. Be it Senna vs. Prost, Hamilton vs. Rosberg, Vettel vs. Webber ad infinitum.
It could just be that Antonelli’s boys are just doing a better job than Russell’s!
HOW CAN RUSSELL TURN THINGS AROUND?
There’s absolutely no doubt that Russell is a sensational driver.
You don’t get to winning the F2 World Championship against Lando Norris before a quick transition to Williams then Mercedes without being elite.
And during his three seasons as Lewis Hamilton’s teammate, the metric shows the duo dead even on race head-to-head at 34-34 but with Russell outqualifying the seven-time champ by a considerable ten occasions.
It already appears that barring a second half Ferrari resurgence, the title fight will be between the Mercedes pair.
How can he claw it back? Tell himself that it’s been done before. Just look at how much Norris trailed Piastri at the same point last year.
It’s all about bringing back that confidence and self belief, and having that lucky roll of the dice – be it Safety Cars, accidents to rivals or car reliability.
The one thing Formula One has taught us over the years is that it’s never over till it’s over.
And certainly neither Antonelli nor Russell will be counting their chickens just yet.
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Craig Scarborough